The health of Scottie Barnes (right) and the playmaking of James Harden are amontg the key factors to watch in Game 6.
The top half of the Eastern Conference bracket feels pretty wide open right now. The No. 8 seed Orlando Magic are one win from upsetting the top-seeded Detroit Pistons. And in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed series, the cumulative score through five games is Cleveland 559, Toronto 557.
More important than the point differential is that the Cavs survived a scare on Wednesday and won Game 5 at home. They looked to be in control of this series after the first two games, but they struggled to score in the two games in Toronto and this suddenly became a tight series.
The Cavs found their offense again in Game 5, but we’ll see if they packed it for another trip across the border.
Here are three things to watch in Game 6 on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, Prime Video):
1. Injury concerns for the Raptors
The Raptors have done well in this series, given the continued absence of Immanuel Quickley, their most prolific 3-point shooter in the regular season. Even with Quickley, they were one of three playoff teams that ranked in the bottom 10 in both 3-point percentage (35.4%, 21st) and 3-point rate (36.3% of their shots, 25th). Through five games in this series, they’ve been outscored by 54 points from beyond the arc.
Brandon Ingram left in the second quarter of Game 5 with heel inflammation and is listed as questionable for Game 6. He’s shot just 19-for-58 (33%) in this series and isn’t going to be particularly efficient over a large sample size, but is certainly capable of turning a game the Raptors’ way if he can get hot.
Most important for Toronto is the health of Scottie Barnes, who suffered a quad contusion in the second quarter of Game 5. After scoring 14 points on 6-for-10 shooting in the first half, Barnes had just three points and missed all six of his shots after halftime.
Barnes has been the Raptors’ most important player on both ends of the floor. On offense, he’s averaging 24 points and eight assists, with some terrific reads included. On defense, he’s spent most of his time defending James Harden (primarily) and Donovan Mitchell, also providing some help in the paint.
If his quad is still bothering him and he’s limited in any way on Friday, the Raptors could be in trouble.
2. The possession game
The team that won the possession game was the team that won Games 1-4. Over the first two games, the Cavs got nine more shot opportunities (field goal attempts or trips to the line) than the Raptors. And over Games 3 and 4, the Raptors got 21 more shot opportunities than the Cavs.
But Game 5 went the other way. Cleveland won despite getting a lot fewer shots. Turnovers were even, but the Raptors dominated the glass. The issue was that the Raptors’ 15 offensive rebounds resulted in only 13 second-chance points. The Cavs shot much better in the paint, from 3-point range, and at the free-throw line.
Still, the Cavs took control of Game 5 when they stopped turning the ball over. Cleveland had nine live-ball turnovers through the first 29 minutes, which led directly to 22 Toronto points. Over the last 19 minutes, the Cavs didn’t have a single live-ball turnover, and the Raptors’ offense dried up.
The Raptors’ half-court offense is not great. They need those steals to get transition points, and they need offensive rebounds for second-chance opportunities.
The Cavs are the better shooting team. And if they’re also the team that gets more shots, they should be in great shape.
3. Bench minutes
The Raptors staggered the minutes of Barnes and RJ Barrett in Game 5, so that at least one of the two was always on the floor. But the score in the 19 minutes was Cavs 64, Raptors 50 when only one of the two was on the floor. Cleveland scored those 64 points on just 40 offensive possessions (1.60 per).
The Cavs also got a huge fourth quarter from Dennis Schröder. In 48 minutes in the series with Harden and Jarrett Allen on the floor without Mitchell and Evan Mobley, they’ve outscored the Raptors by 21 points (19.8 per 100 possessions).
The Mitchell-and-Mobley minutes without Harden and Allen haven’t been so good. In fact, the Cavs used Thomas Bryant in the first half of Game 5 so that Mobley didn’t have to be the lone big on the floor for all of that stretch. But Bryant wasn’t needed in the second half, when the Cavs took control of the game with Mobley as the lone big for a stretch spanning the third and fourth quarters.
The Raptors don’t necessarily need to win the bench minutes on Friday, but they can’t get destroyed when Barnes and/or Barrett are off the floor, like they did in Game 5.
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John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
