NEW DELHI: A total of 59 constituencies spread across four districts will play a crucial role in shaping the early direction of the Bengal Assembly elections. These seats make up nearly 39 per cent of the 152 constituencies voting in the first phase, making them central to the battle for momentum.In north Bengal, where 54 seats are going to polls, the BJP is seen to have an advantage. On the other hand, in districts like Birbhum and West Burdwan, the Trinamool Congress appears better placed due to its strong organisational network and past performance.However, the contest becomes far more competitive in Murshidabad, Bankura, Purulia and East Midnapore, where no clear frontrunner emerges.Murshidabad Murshidabad stands out as a multi-cornered contest rather than a straight fight. Unlike much of Bengal, the Congress and the CPM still retain a meaningful presence here. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Trinamool led in most segments, but the Congress and BJP also held pockets of influence, with the CPM maintaining a smaller share.The 2021 Assembly elections told a different story, with the Trinamool sweeping the district and the BJP managing just a couple of seats. Yet, demographic factors and shifting loyalties continue to make Murshidabad unpredictable. The entry of leaders like Adhir Chowdhury in Berhampore and Humayun Kabir in multiple seats adds further complexity.The Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls has added another layer of uncertainty. Murshidabad alone accounts for a significant share of voter deletions and revisions, making it difficult to predict how the numbers will translate into votes.Bankura Bankura presents a closely fought contest. Over the last two elections, both the BJP and the Trinamool have remained almost evenly matched in terms of vote share and seats. Local issues such as agriculture distress, infrastructure gaps and access to healthcare continue to influence voter sentiment.PuruliaIn Purulia, the electoral pattern has fluctuated between the two main parties. While the BJP had the upper hand in the 2021 Assembly elections, the Trinamool regained ground in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The district’s economic challenges, including water scarcity and limited industrial growth, remain key concerns for voters.East Midnapore East Midnapore is shaping up as a high stakes political battleground. The contest here carries added significance due to the involvement of senior leaders. The BJP performed strongly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in this region, but the Trinamool had a better showing in the previous Assembly polls. Nandigram continues to remain the focal point of this rivalry.As the first phase approaches, these districts reflect the broader dynamics of Bengal politics, where local factors, leadership battles and changing voter patterns combine to make the outcome far from certain.Voting in this phase will take place across a wide stretch of the state, covering districts such as Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, Uttar and Dakshin Dinajpur, Malda, Murshidabad, Birbhum, Paschim Bardhaman, Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, Paschim Medinipur and Purba Medinipur. A total of 1,478 candidates are contesting in this round.Early indicators on polling day are likely to come from turnout trends in minority dominated areas and tea garden belts, along with how smoothly voting proceeds in booths marked as highly sensitive. The functioning of complaint systems set up by the Election Commission will also be closely watched.For the Trinamool Congress, the immediate challenge lies in holding on to its strong position from the 2021 election. Changes in electoral rolls and the heavy deployment of security forces could influence turnout, especially in regions where the party relies on rural and minority support.The BJP, on the other hand, sees this phase as a chance to strengthen its position in North Bengal and border districts. A strong performance here would reinforce its claim of being the principal challenger and increase pressure on the ruling party.Security arrangements have been scaled up significantly. Around 2,407 companies of Central Armed Police Forces, comprising more than 2.4 lakh personnel, have been deployed across polling areas. Such a large presence is being described as unusual for a state that is not under any special security provisions.Additional measures include the deployment of Quick Reaction Teams near polling stations. At the same time, 7,384 booths have been classified as highly sensitive or critical, reflecting concerns over potential disturbances. The scale of deployment has also sparked debate about its impact on both perception and the polling process.
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