Belagavi: Belagavi has recorded its fifth-driest June in 126 years, highlighting the highly erratic nature of the southwest monsoon this year, according to a study by scientists at the Hard Rock Regional Centre of the National Institute of Hydrology (NIH) in Belagavi.The study by Abhilash R, Jyoti P Patil and B Venkatesh analysed daily rainfall data from Jan 1, 1901, to July 15, 2026. It found that while cumulative rainfall during the first half of 2026 remained close to normal, the monsoon has been marked by prolonged dry spells and uneven rainfall distribution. June recorded just 51.4mm rainfall against the long-term average of 209.7mm, a deficit of 75.5%. Only 1962, 1923, 2023 and 1995 witnessed lower June rainfall.Researchers said cumulative rainfall figures mask the actual monsoon situation. Belagavi received 323.7mm rainfall between January and June against a historical average of 349.8mm, a deficit of only 7.5%, largely due to unusually heavy rainfall in Jan and March. January received 43 mm rainfall, over 12 times its average, while March recorded 118.6 mm, more than 11 times normal.The monsoon made a tentative appearance on June 8, with 15.2mm of rainfall, but failed to sustain itself. A prolonged dry spell from June 11 to June 22 prevented a stable monsoon from setting in by month-end.The trend persisted in July. Between July 2 and 9, Belagavi received 251mm of rainfall, including 80mm on July 5 and 70mm on July 7, followed by a six-day dry spell from July 10 to 16. Scientists noted that despite substantial rainfall, the intermittent pattern meant a sustained monsoon onset could not be conclusively established by July 16.The study points to a sharp contrast between rainfall quantity and distribution. Rainfall during the first half of July touched 321mm, or 156% of the normal 205.8mm, pushing cumulative Jan–July 15 rainfall to 644.7mm against the normal 555.6 mm. Yet the season remained highly uneven, with intense rainfall bursts followed by long dry spells.Researchers warned that such erratic rainfall can be as challenging for farmers as a drought, disrupting sowing schedules, soil moisture and crop planning. Historical comparisons show similar delayed monsoon patterns in 1993, 2000, 2014 and 2020. With the earliest monsoon onset recorded on May 5, 2018, and the latest on July 14, 1912, scientists say 2026 could rank among the latest onset years if dry conditions persist.
