As Middle East tensions continue to intensify, India’s global capability center (GCC) landscape could face some temporary headwinds. Experts, however, said that the country may ultimately gain as companies prioritise stability in their global operations. Multinational corporations including Microsoft, Visa, Intel, Qualcomm, Siemens Healthineers, DHL, Nokia, HP, PepsiCo, Emerson, Lenovo, Johnson Controls and Eaton currently run GCC operations across both India and the Middle East. Their presence cuts across industries such as technology, semiconductors, logistics, healthcare, manufacturing and financial services. According to experts who spoke to ET, security overhang in the Gulf is unlikely to vanish quickly even if military activity subsides. This persistent uncertainty may compel global firms to reassess how they expand in the region. In the short term, companies are expected to move cautiously on fresh investments while they evaluate the evolving risk environment. Over time, however, some multinationals may consider scaling back in higher-risk locations and instead accelerate GCC expansion in India, potentially positioning the country as an early beneficiary of disruptions in the Gulf. That said, a prolonged conflict, especially one that affects oil supply and prices, could tighten global technology spending and weigh on the Indian GCC ecosystem. “The Gulf was not yet a significant nearshore base, but it was getting there fast,” said Pareekh Jain, CEO of EIIRTrend, which tracks engineering, IoT and R&D sectors. Nations such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been pushing hard to diversify their economies beyond oil into areas like finance, AI, technology, travel and manufacturing, attracting growing interest from multinational firms. The current tensions could slow some of that momentum. Jain noted that global uncertainty may also delay GCC-related decisions involving India as companies focus first on managing immediate risks. “This could be negative for GCCs in India for the short term,” he said. Industry executives indicated that it is still premature to measure the full impact, given the conflict began only two days ago. Nasscom said in a statement that industry operations are continuing normally. The body has advised member companies to postpone travel to affected regions and enable work-from-home arrangements for employees based there. Experts pointed out that the most visible near-term impact could be slower corporate decision-making. “There were zero greenfield GCCs from the Gulf or the Middle East in India in 2025 and established energy sector GCCs like those of Shell and BP would not suddenly expand in India because of short-term demand or pricing shifts,” said Gaurav Vasu, CEO of UnearthInsight. He added that the bigger issue is how global firms that were expanding in both geographies simultaneously recalibrate their strategies. Tech policy analyst Subimal Bhattacharjee said any disruption to business continuity in the Gulf could prompt a temporary pause in GCC investments and hiring while parent firms reassess their exposure. “Global delivery chains would be impacted to various degrees and Indian GCC firms could be busier,” he said, adding that companies may increasingly depend on India to absorb workloads and take on more client-facing responsibilities. At present, India hosts more than 1,800 GCCs employing over 1.9 million people and generating $64.6 billion in revenue in FY24. The sector is projected to reach $110 billion in revenue by 2030. “They might re-evaluate their plans and could double down on India for GCC,” Jain said, noting that India continues to be viewed as one of the more stable investment destinations at a time when Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East are experiencing varying degrees of volatility. The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains a key variable. Earlier ET reporting highlighted that disruptions to maritime movement through the Strait of Hormuz and rising crude prices are already putting pressure on enterprise technology budgets globally. “Global and Indian IT services (growth) could slow down to 2-3% for FY27,” Vasu said, compared with earlier estimates of 4-5%. He warned that slower decision cycles and delayed tech spending would directly impact GCC investment pipelines. Bhattacharjee said that upcoming 30–60 days will be critical. If tensions remain under control, India’s GCC sector could emerge stronger as firms look to reduce exposure to higher-risk regions and accelerate India-focused plans. However, a prolonged oil shock or sustained attacks on Gulf infrastructure could trigger a broader macro slowdown and place India’s $110 billion GCC ambition under strain.
