Seton Hall and Creighton have no choice. They both need to win the Big East Tournament if they’re going to earn a ticket to the Big Dance.
The Pirates have the better overall record at 20-11, but only one game separated these two teams in the final Big East standings, and they split the head-to-head matchup, with both games decided by one possession.
In other words, it’s no wonder that the odds for Thursday’s tilt are pretty tight. Seton Hall is a 3.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Seton Hall vs. Creighton odds, prediction
Madison Square Garden is an iconic boxing venue, so we’ll borrow an adage from the sweet science for this handicapping adventure: Styles make fights.
No. 4 Seton Hall and No. 5 Creighton had similar Big East seasons and played two tight games, but they could hardly be more different stylistically.
The Blue Jays love to chuck it from downtown. They took the most 3-pointers of any team in the Big East this season, and they didn’t feel a need to adjust despite a mediocre conversion rate (125th).
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Seton Hall, on the other hand, rarely heaves it from beyond the arc. There are 365 Division I basketball programs, and only three of them shot fewer 3-pointers per game than the Pirates in 2025-26.
Given their aversion to attempting 3-pointers, it’s no wonder that Seton Hall plays at a snail’s pace. The Pirates rank 305th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, while Creighton is much closer to average. The Blue Jays aren’t looking to get up and down the floor, but it may look that way compared to Seton Hall.
This tale of the tape is full of contradictions, but the most notable edge is on defense. Seton Hall isn’t just one of the best defensive sides in the Big East, but they grade out as one of the best units in the entire nation. KenPom has the Pirates as the 13th-best defense in Division I, and Bart Torvik has them just a shade lower at No. 16.
Seton Hall’s offense leaves a lot to be desired, but the Pirates will be going up against a leaky defense, which should help them keep this game on their terms. The last thing Seton Hall wants is to be chasing Creighton, but its stalwart defense should prevent that from happening.
We’ll lay the points with the Pirates on Thursday.
The Play: Seton Hall -3.5 (-102, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
