The 2025-26 NBA regular season is in the rearview mirror, and the Boston Celtics outkicked most outsider expectations as part of their 56-win season.
With a long ramp to Sunday’s Game 1 of a first-round series, it felt like a good time to both revisit our seven bold preseason predictions and deliver a fresh batch of seven predictions for the postseason trek ahead.
Here is how our crystal ball fared with our seven bold preseason predictions:
1. Jaylen Brown returns to an All-NBA team. We don’t even need to wait for the voting. It’s a lock.
2. Celtics finish in the top 10 in steals this season. Big swing and a miss here. Celtics finished 28th in steals at 7.1 per game. We should have said top 10 in not allowing steals. Boston finished No. 1 in the NBA in opponent steals per game (6.2).
3. Derrick White blocks 100+ shots. White got to 98 in 77 games. Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and preseason bold predictions.
4. The Celtics will produce another 40/40 night. It hasn’t happened … yet.
5. Josh Minott receives votes for Most Improved Player. We felt really good about this one for like two weeks in November. We missed the slam dunk choice in Neemias Queta.
6. Brad Stevens makes a splash-worthy deal in January 2026. Swapping Anfernee Simons for Nikola Vucevic provided the splashy trade, even if the Celtics waited until February to make the move.
7. Jayson Tatum returns to game action in February 2026. We originally picked March 4 vs. Charlotte and would have been off by a game, as Tatum made his debut on March 6 vs. Dallas. Alas, we got a little too ambitious and shuffled up to February.
Pair all these with our prediction that the Celtics would challenge for a top-four spot in the East, and we feel pretty confident about how the crystal ball fared. So we dusted it off with hopes of making another handful of bold postseason prognostications.
These aren’t just predictions; these are also probably needs to happen for Boston to have a long and prosperous run. Check some of these boxes and the Celtics might just be back on the Finals stage.
1. Baylor Scheierman’s defense becomes vital.
Scheierman’s tongue-waging, mullet-flowing scoring outburst in the regular-season finale against Orlando was highly entertaining. But while knocking down open looks will be important in the postseason, Scheierman’s biggest impact will be his defensive versatility.
If higher seeds were to win out in the play-in game and beyond, the Celtics would see many of the All-Stars they have confidently assigned Scheierman to defend this season. Some of his biggest matchup time totals this season have come against Tyrese Maxey and Cade Cunningham, with Jalen Brunson not far behind. And Scheierman has made them work for their points.
Scheierman contested 20 shots per 100 possessions during his floor time this season (80th percentile at his position) and held opponents to 1.1 percent below expected output. He’s a relentless rebounder on both ends of the floor and has a knack for drawing offensive fouls.
Perhaps even more important, he can defend without fouling, committing infractions on just 8.4 percent of his contested shots (81st percentile for his position).
Scheierman is becoming Derrick White-like at breaking up odd-man rushes in transition and simply making good things happen defensively. His basketball IQ has been on full display this season and him being in all the right spots is a big reason that he earned Joe Mazzulla’s trust.
Scheierman is going to get called on in big spots throughout the postseason. We wondered if the team might even elevate him to a starting role in certain matchups, but because the stars on the other side will play such big minutes, there will still be stretches where he could be asked to defend elite talent of all shapes and sizes while still coming off the bench.
Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez need to stay ready in case the Celtics need other jolts of defensive energy along the way. The bottom line on this prediction: The young collection of wings has to leave their mark — even if in limited doses — through the postseason.
2. The Celtics take care of home court … more so than recent seasons.
Boston fumbled away two 20-point leads on its home floor to start last year’s second-round matchup with the Knicks and basically put itself in an impossible situation to rally back. Two years before that, Boston endured six of its nine playoff losses on the Garden floor, including Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.
Even during their 2024 title run, the Celtics lost early-round games at home against both the Heat and the Cavaliers before tightening up the rest of the way.
The Celtics have to restore some of the Garden playoff mystique. There will inevitably be stumbles along the playoff path, but they can’t give away home court early in a series and dramatically thin their margin for error with a younger roster.
It’s also imperative to thrive at home because possible playoff opponents like Detroit (31-9 at home) and New York (30-10) — and certainly any team that emerges out West — were notably better in their home arenas than on the road.
The Celtics won’t be perfect at home, but they’ll be better than we’ve seen in recent seasons.
3. Jayson Tatum’s average for total points + rebounds + assists will be north of 41.
In 16 games after his March return, Tatum averaged 21.8 points, 10 rebounds, and 5.3 assists over 32.6 minutes per game, or 37.1 points + rebounds + assists. Over his final five regular-season games, those numbers spiked to 23.6 points, 12 rebounds, and 7.8 assists over 36.2 minutes per game (43.4 P+R+A).
So, 41-plus doesn’t seem all that bold considering Tatum’s minutes could consistently scale near or beyond 40 minutes in the postseason. But even during Boston’s run to a title in the 2024 postseason, he was at 25.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists — or exactly 41 P+R+A.
If this prediction comes true, he’d actually be filling up the box score more while being less than a year removed from an Achilles tear at the start of the postseason. It’s all preposterous, but Tatum’s impact since returning is already light years beyond what could have reasonably been expected.
We’re bullish on Tatum putting up big numbers in the postseason for two reasons: 1) His rebounding has been off the charts since his return, and if Neemias Queta is doing the dirty work boxing out big men, it’s on wings like Tatum to clean up the glass, and 2) Tatum’s playmaking has leveled up yet again since his return and he’s creating a ton of quality shots for teammates.
4. Payton Pritchard hits at least one buzzer-beater.
Is this even a bold prediction? Should we amend this to one per series? If there’s under 10 seconds on the game clock, teams ought to be triple-teaming Pritchard at this point. Somehow he still finds a way to get the ball and has full confidence in those situations.
Pritchard will have at least one buzzer-beating make that changes the momentum of yet another playoff game.
5. Boston’s playoff run features both “The Garza Game” and “The Vooch Game.”
Mazzulla might not want to hear any Coach of the Year chatter, but it’s inarguable that he’s had the pulse on his team all season long while continuously pushing the right buttons in various situations.
Yes, the players deserve a lot of credit for staying ready, but Mazzulla kept them on their toes by being willing to change their role from night to night, especially when he thought they could help the Celtics most.
That’s why we think there’s room for both “The Garza Game” and “The Vooch Game” in the postseason. Luka Garza is going to turn the energy one night with his relentless hustle, while Nikola Vucevic, inspired by finally being on a legitimate contender, will have a loud scoring night where he feasts from beyond the arc.
6. Jaylen Brown reaffirms his declaration as the best two-way player in the NBA.
With Tatum back, Brown can pick spots to really leave his imprint on the defensive end. And much like how we spotlighted Scheierman’s potential impact earlier in these predictions, it feels like Brown serving as the first line of defense against some of these All-Star opponents could fuel a long playoff run.
The most intriguing matchup would be a potential East Finals showdown with Detroit. Brown spent 9 minutes and 15 seconds defending Cunningham this season — the second-highest total on the team behind Jordan Walsh (11:34) — and limited Detroit’s MVP-caliber wing to five points on 2-of-10 shooting, per NBA tracking.
Even if it’s Cleveland on the other side, Brown has attached himself at the hip of James Harden in previous seasons and swung those series with his defense.
There’s a real chance to earn some more MVP hardware if Brown leaves the sort of two-way impact we saw in the 2024 title run. He averaged 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game in those playoffs, and we think those marks will spike a bit this postseason.
7. Predicting the Path
- First round: No. 2 Celtics over No. 7 Magic/Sixers in five games.
- Second round: No. 2 Celtics over No. 3 Knicks in seven games.
- East Finals: No. 2 Celtics over No. 4 Cavaliers in six games.
What happens in the NBA Finals? Let’s make some more bold predictions in late May.
