In any Edmonton Oilers playoff series, the most important player will always be Connor McDavid. The second most important player is the guy tasked with stopping him.
In Anaheim, that’s Jackson LaCombe and he’s the biggest reason the Anaheim Ducks are one win away from the second round.
LaCombe’s stock has been steadily on the rise since his breakout 2024-25 season that earned him a hefty eight-year, $72 million extension last summer. After a difficult rookie season, LaCombe took a massive jump, scoring 43 points while tilting the ice in the right direction despite playing some of the league’s most difficult minutes. His puck-moving acumen in all three zones jumped off the page as he began to grow into a legitimate No. 1 defenseman. LaCombe’s growth continued this season, culminating in an invitation to join Team USA in Milan. Although he didn’t play, an inclusion like that amidst such a stacked field speaks volumes.
With 58 points this season and more excellence at five-on-five, LaCombe was a star in the making — and the playoffs are where stars are born. That’s exactly what we’re seeing from LaCombe so far and that’s not simply because he has eight points in five games. It’s what he’s doing specifically to the best player in the world, at a time he usually shines brightest, that’s turning heads.
First, some context.
Over McDavid’s past three playoffs, his xG rates were 60 percent last season, 63 percent before that and 58 percent before that. In each playoff run, he generated at least 3 goals-per-60 and 3.25 expected goals-per-60 offensively. Those numbers are roughly in line with what McDavid showed to be capable of during the regular season, too. This year, he had a 56 percent xG rate, 3.29 goals-per-60 and 3.61 expected goals per 60.
That has mostly continued whenever LaCombe has been on the bench during this series. While the Oilers only have one goal in those minutes (1.81 goals-per-60), the chances are there (2.99 expected goals per 60) and McDavid is tilting the ice heavily with 65 percent of expected goals. Classic McDavid.
The problem is that McDavid has only been on the ice for 33 non-LaCombe minutes. In the 51 minutes against LaCombe, it’s been an entirely different story.
Against LaCombe, the Oilers are only generating 1.62 expected goals per 60 with McDavid — roughly half of what he would normally put up. That’s led to a dismal 44 percent xG rate with the Ducks up 4-2 on the scoresheet.
Some of that may be related to an injury McDavid sustained in Game 2. His worst game against LaCombe was Game 3 (0-3, 22 percent xG) and he did get back on track in Game 5 (1-0, 60 percent xG).
Maybe that means the tide is turning. Maybe.
But it’s also worth noting that during the three regular-season matchups between these two teams, LaCombe also got the better of McDavid, leading to the exact same xG rate for the Oilers captain: 44 percent.
If the Oilers are going to come back in this series, they need McDavid to solve the LaCombe problem in front of him. Right now, it looks like he’s met his match.
16 stats
1. Carlsson’s playoff debut
If this Ducks rebuild is going to work, having a forward and a defenseman playing at a franchise level is of the utmost importance. LaCombe is on his way to proving himself in that realm with this playoff performance. Leo Carlsson is, too.
Through five games, Carlsson has five points and has been an ace at five-on-five with a 57 percent xG rate. Among Anaheim’s forwards, that’s one of the best marks on the team. He’s also creating a ton of chances for himself with 17.8 shots-per-60, up from 8.6 during the regular season.
Put it all together and Carlsson has a Net Rating of plus-1.2. Small sample, obviously, but that’s indeed a franchise-level pace — not far off from the pace he started the season at before getting injured.
2. Kasperi Kapanen, clutch scorer
Over the last two regular seasons, Kasperi Kapanen has scored 0.6 goals-per-60, a number that puts him 329th in the league among forwards. With four goals in five games in these playoffs, Kapanen’s goals-per-60 is up to 1.69 over the last two playoff runs, good for 10th in the league and the best mark on the Oilers.
That’s not just shooting luck either; it comes from Kapanen shooting the puck a lot more. During the regular season, he’s at 5.6 shots-per-60 over the last two years. That jumps to 9.6 during the playoffs with a real improvement in quality, too. Kapanen’s expected shooting percentage in the playoffs is 11.4 percent, up from 9.1 percent during the regular season. By Net Rating, he’s been Edmonton’s most valuable player so far.
3. Ingram breaks Edmonton’s bad goaltending streak
The Oilers made Game 5 easy on Connor Ingram with a 3-0 lead 10 minutes in and by allowing just 1.7 expected goals against. Still, Ingram did his part, allowing just one goal against, good for a GSAx of plus-0.7.
Why does that matter? It’s the first game since Game 1 of last year’s Stanley Cup Final that the Oilers have received above-average goaltending in a playoff game. That’s a nine-game skid snapped.
4. Vegas’ goaltending problem
With an xG percentage of 61 percent at five-on-five, the Golden Knights have controlled their series against the Mammoth, equal to Colorado’s dominance over Los Angeles. The Avalanche swept the Kings; the Golden Knights are only up 3-2. The difference? Goaltending.
Vegas has generated as much offense as Colorado, scoring as much as the Avalanche and as expected relative to its chances created. But on the other side of the ledger, the Golden Knights have allowed 3.56 GA/60. That’s second worst to only Boston, despite allowing a playoff-best 1.68 xGA/60.
That’s ugly stuff that lands squarely on Carter Hart’s shoulders. Hart’s expected save percentage during this series is .920. Actual save percentage: .886.
5. Utah’s top line thriving
As lopsided as the chance counts have been in Vegas’ favor, that doesn’t seem to be the case when Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther have been out there. That duo is the future of Mammoth hockey and their playoff debuts have been extremely inspiring so far. In 43 minutes playing with Kailer Yamamoto, the Mammoth are rocking a 73 percent xG rate. The team’s other three lines are all under 40 percent.
6. No puck luck in Dallas
Believe it or not, the Stars own the xG edge in their series against the Wild, controlling 53 percent of the chances. But they’re only getting around 20 percent of the goals; outscored 11-3. That’s a 32 percentage point difference, the fourth-worst mark in the analytics era. That stems almost entirely from offense, where Dallas has scored just 0.66 goals-per-60 off 2.29 expected goals per 60.
7. Star power matters in Minnesota
One of Minnesota’s biggest advantages going into the series against Dallas was that the Wild would have the two best players in the series: Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes. That big goal differential at five-on-five mentioned above? All them. The Wild are down 3-2 with neither Kaprizov nor Hughes on the ice and up 9-0 otherwise (4-0 together, 5-0 with at least one on the ice). That combination has been the difference.
8. Holland’s 2025 offseason revisited
To tie a bow on the Kings’ season, let’s take one last look at the choice they made for their third pair last summer: trading Jordan Spence and signing Cody Ceci.
Spence earned 61 percent of expected goals for the Senators during the playoffs, while Ceci was the polar opposite at 33 percent. Spence was on the ice for just 1.93 xGA/60 while Ceci was at 3.32, one of the worst marks from the entire postseason.
That swap isn’t the reason the Kings lost, but it still feels like an indictment on the team’s direction: A baffling decision that proved itself over and over again all year, right until the very end.
9. Colorado and Buffalo desperate for a power-play fix
The Avalanche and Sabres both entered the playoffs with the same glaring issue: the power play. That hasn’t changed so far.
Colorado managed just 3.8 goals-per-60 in its four-game sweep over the Kings, a further drop from the team’s paltry regular-season showing. That’s still somehow better than the Sabres, who scored their first goal with the man advantage in Game 5, bringing their goals-per-60 up to 1.56 and their goal differential back up to break-even.
The Avalanche and Sabres have done more than enough at five-on-five to make up for it against weaker opponents. That may not be the case going forward. It’s time to step up.
10. The good and bad with Zadorov
The good: Nikita Zadorov leads all Bruins with a plus-0.5 Defensive Rating. That’s on the back of a 2.35 xGA/60 and 1.47 GA/60, both among the team leads. He’s doing that while taking on the toughest minutes for Boston as their most-used defenseman at five-on-five.
The bad: A league-worst seven penalties taken, one of which was a major. His 4.4 penalties-per-60 is way up from the regular season, where he was at 1.7. It hasn’t hurt the Bruins yet because Buffalo’s power play has been that bad, but Zadorov is playing with fire.
11. Östlund’s absence looms large
He may not be a household name yet, but Noah Östlund has been an underrated difference-maker this season and that manifested in the three games he got into action. The 16th pick from 2022 had two points in those games and a 65.4 percent xG rate that trailed only Rasmus Dahlin and Josh Doan on the team. His 1.46 xGA/60 was a standout, a continuation from a strong defensive game he flashed during his rookie season. The Sabres are still in the driver’s seat, up 3-2, but that’s a big loss.
12. Suzuki vs. Cirelli
One of the more interesting things about this season was Jon Cooper using Yanni Gourde as his primary matchup center — not Anthony Cirelli. That’s changed in the first round against Montreal, where Cirelli is back to being Cooper’s top option in a defensive role, a decision he’s been greatly rewarded for.
Through the first five games of the series, Cirelli has played just over 45 minutes against Nick Suzuki and those minutes have not gone well for Suzuki at all. The Lightning have outscored the Canadiens 3-0 in those minutes and have not allowed Montreal’s top line to generate anything. During that time, the Lightning have earned 59 percent of expected goals while holding Suzuki to just 0.8 expected goals per 60.
Cirelli and Co. have given the Suzuki line absolutely nothing so far, and yet the Canadiens are still one win away from the second round. That’s huge.
13. Pinto’s un-Selke series
For a guy who showed off a strong defensive glow-up and is going to appear on a lot of Selke ballots this spring, Shane Pinto had a decidedly difficult series against Carolina. His 37 percent xG was ahead of only linemate Michael Amadio among forwards and he was outscored 3-0 in his minutes.
14. Is Andersen the answer?
All year, it was fair to question Carolina’s options in net. Pyotr Kochetkov was injured long-term, Brandon Bussi was a house of cards that eventually toppled and Frederik Andersen looked like a shade of his best self. If there was one major Achilles’ heel, that was it.
Four games later and that goalie anxiety has calmed; Andersen was that good in the first round. In four games, he allowed just five goals, posted a .955 save percentage and saved a league-leading 7.7 goals above expected. Given how strong Linus Ullmark was on the other side, Andersen shining to this degree was vital to the Hurricanes’ ability to quickly take care of business against Ottawa.
Will it last? That’s a lot tougher to say, but at his best, there weren’t many goalies that can match Andersen’s A-game. For Carolina to go the distance, getting that A-game for an extended period rather than a flash will be crucial.
15. Mantha’s consistent playoff issues
For much of his career, Mantha had two issues: staying healthy and showing up in the playoffs. One of those issues was solved this year in a career season where Mantha missed just one game all year. The other isn’t looking so hot.
After scoring 33 goals and 64 points this season, Mantha had a single assist in six games during the postseason. His playoff goalless drought has extended to 20 games and just as damning is a 43 percent xG rate that ranks near the bottom of Pittsburgh’s forward group. The Penguins needed a lot more from their surprise star.
16. How the playoffs have differed from the regular season
Here are some key stats and how the league average has changed going from the regular season to the playoffs.
Goals/60
Season: 3.03
Playoffs: 2.68
Shots/60
Season: 27.4
Playoffs: 26.5
Hits/60
Season: 20.2
Playoffs: 34.8
Penalties/60
Season: 3.3
Playoffs: 5.2
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Hockey Stats, Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Stat Cards
