Horses for Courses: Long-hitting Chris Gotterup great fit for Trump National Doral

After a memorable finish to the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the PGA TOUR rolls forward into a stretch loaded with two Signature Events followed by the PGA Championship.

The TOUR returns to Trump National Doral this week for the first time in a decade for the inaugural

Cadillac Championship. While this marks the first edition of the event, it’s far from the first time the TOUR has taken on the Blue Monster Course. The course carries a 55-year history, hosting TOUR events from 1962 through 2016.

That said, not all of that history is particularly useful. The course underwent a significant redesign in 2014, and Strokes Gained data wasn’t widely tracked until 2011, with more detailed metrics only becoming available starting in 2014.

The available data, paired with the eye test, is more than enough to handicap this event effectively and identify both the best fits and the value on the board. Using my understanding of the Blue Monster and the data we have, I mapped out which metrics correlate most strongly with success. Here are the key metrics I used when modeling this course.

• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• SG: Approach
• Proximity: 175-200
• 200-225
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Long Courses
• SG: Putting (Bermuda)
• SG: Total

The Blue Monster is exactly that—a brute. Measuring 7,739 yards, this par 72 is set to play as the longest course on the PGA TOUR this season. To put that into perspective, it’s nearly 200 yards longer than the last time the TOUR was here in 2016. Driving distance will be a major factor this week, just as it has been historically. Eight of the last 10 winners here ranked inside the top 25 in driving distance for the week.

Here are the longest drivers in the field (data via RickRunGood.com):

Gary Woodland (+7200) stands out as one of the more interesting names from this list. While Chris Gotterup (+2800) will draw plenty of attention and is someone I’ll have exposure to in the outright market, it’s hard to ignore the value on Woodland.

He is long off the tee and consistent. He’s also gained strokes off the tee in every event this season. What’s been more surprising is the turnaround in his iron play. After missing three of four cuts beginning at the Farmers Insurance Open in early February, something clicked. Starting at the Valspar Championship, he flipped a switch and gained significantly on approach. He followed that up with an even better showing at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, where he went on to win.

He cooled slightly at the Masters but bounced right back with another strong iron performance. He has now gained strokes on approach in three of his last four starts, with three top-15 finishes in that stretch, including the win.

Beyond the recent form, there’s also the course fit. Woodland was also in a few of the fields during the earlier TOUR trips to Doral. Seeing Gary Woodland in the Top 20 (including ties) at +166 is surprising. I jumped at that number quickly.

One of the things that’s stuck with me the most from this course was how important precision with long irons is. There is danger everywhere, especially water. The greens at Doral either run off into water or into impossibly thick rough. If golfers are even slightly off with their irons, they run the risk of bringing big numbers into play.

Looking at the average approach distances, that notion becomes even more important. More than 59.4% of all approach shots come from 200 yards or longer. Approach play is important, but the focus must largely be on the 200-yard-plus proximity bucket. Skill with long irons is going to be far more important than wedge play this week.

Here are the top golfers from 200-plus yards (data via Betspertsgolf.com)

With over 59.4% of approach shots coming from 200 yards or more, it’s easy to see why this shapes up as one of the most important metrics this week. Golfers who have struggled on approach this season could be exposed, especially those who struggle from the 200-plus yard range. With water in play throughout the course, this is not a layout where you can afford to be loose with your irons.

Here are the lowest-rated golfers from 200-plus yards

Given the state of Ben Griffin’s (+5700) game, he’s a golfer who could struggle this week. His iron play has been off, losing strokes on approach in eight of his 10 measured events this season. He’s also missed three cuts during that stretch.

It’s not just the irons. He’s been wayward off the tee as well, losing strokes in that category in seven of those 10 events. The combination of the two is dangerous in Doral. With water in play and thick rough throughout, he could be in trouble if he doesn’t get it cleaned up.

There are multiple ways to fade Griffin this week. You can take him to finish 32nd or worse at -120, but there’s another angle that offers a bit more value.

Tournament Matchup: J.J. Spaun (-114) over Ben Griffin (DraftKings)

We talked about Griffin and how he could struggle, but targeting him in the placement market wasn’t exactly what I wanted to do. In a limited field, finishing 31st is still very doable, even with poor form. So, the goal became finding someone who fits the profile I’m looking for and presents a strong fade opportunity against Griffin.

J.J. Spaun (+7500) checked a lot of those boxes. To be clear, he’s not without question marks, but there are real positives in his game that make this matchup appealing. First and foremost, his iron play has been excellent. He’s gained strokes on approach in six straight events.

His tee-to-green numbers over his last four starts have been solid as well. Even in the two events where he missed the cut, he still gained strokes in that category. At the RBC Heritage, he was a significant gainer both off the tee and on approach. The only issue that showed up was with the putter.

That’s something I’m willing to live with here. On a course like Doral, if you’re consistently gaining on approach, the putting doesn’t need to be elite. It just needs to be steady, especially on the tough Bermuda greens.

Even if he lands somewhere in the T15 to T25 range, that should still put him in a good position to finish ahead of Griffin. When you dig in further, it becomes even more compelling. Spaun tends to play his best golf on difficult, demanding courses, especially ones that are long and reward great long-iron play. Spaun over Griffin makes too much sense here.

Chris Gotterup to win (+2800)

The number on Chris Gotterup has come down slightly, but even in the +2500 to +2800 range, there’s still plenty of value given how well he fits this course. For me, it comes down to him or Cameron Young (+1200) as the true horse for the course.

Throughout this column, the profile has been clear. You need to be long off the tee while also gaining strokes with your driver. While those two metrics aren’t the only ones that matter, they are so important that they can almost overshadow the others. Gotterup does those so well. I mean, his entire game is underrated. He ranks first in driving distance and fifth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee over his last 36 rounds. On approach, he sits 28th in the field overall, but from 175 yards and out, he’s inside the top 12.

He’s developed into a player who can separate himself from the field, and more importantly, he’s shown he can win in different ways. When he won the Genesis Scottish Open last July, his driver was a weapon, and his approach play was solid, but it was the putter that carried him as he gained over seven strokes on the greens. At the Sony Open in Hawaii, it was more of an approach and putting performance. A few events later, he leaned on his driver and short game. It’s simple. Gotterup can gain across the bag, even if the putter isn’t scorching.

If you were building a player from scratch to fit this layout, Gotterup would be one of the first names you land on.

There is still value on his current number. I don’t think the market has fully caught up to how complete his game has become. In a limited field, a price in the 25-to-1 range is too high. Based on the fit and current form, this is a golfer who should be closer to 18-to-1. At anything near 28-to-1, you’re getting value.