The stage is now set. The Los Angeles Lakers and the Houston Rockets will face off in the first round of the NBA playoffs in a matchup shaped as much by who’s unavailable as who is.
For the Lakers, the burden tilts heavily toward LeBron James. With Luka Dončić (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) sidelined due to injury, the offensive ecosystem narrows, forcing James into a familiar role as both creator and closer deep into his career. There’s also a reality hovering over all of it: This could be the final postseason run of James’ 23-year career.
Across from him, the Rockets present a far different picture. Kevin Durant gives them a singular late-game option, while Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson round out a group with multiple ways to apply pressure.
It leaves a series defined by contrast: one superstar asked to carry an undermanned roster against another who can rely on younger teammates. It also puts the spotlight on whether L.A. can manufacture enough offense to keep pace.
Lakers writer Dan Woike and Rockets writer Will Guillory give us a first look at the series.
What is the biggest storyline for my team headed into the playoffs?
Woike: How will the Lakers survive without Reaves and Dončić?
The Lakers have had to undergo the worst kind of reinvention in the final five games of the regular season, figuring out how to play together without their two most important players. The good news, relatively speaking, is that option No. 3 is James. The bad news: At 41, how often can he empty the tank to keep them afloat long enough to maybe — maybe — get Dončić or Reaves back on the court.
Despite what the narratives have been, this has been a terrific season for the Lakers. They’re over 50 wins for the second straight year, went 15-2 in March with a clear hierarchy and stood down some of the best competition in the league. But they did that with Dončić and Reaves in place.
Now, they’ll enter the postseason in the embryonic stages of whatever this version of their team is, with tons of room to grow but real questions about how it’s going to turn out.
Guillory: How much playoff success will Kevin Durant have in his first season with the Rockets?
Houston surprised much of the NBA last season in winning 52 games and grabbing the West’s No. 2 seed. But in the end, a lack of experience and a go-to offensive option resulted in the Rockets being bounced by Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors in a dramatic seven-game, first-round series.
Enter Kevin Durant, a player who could help them address both problems at once. Although Durant has performed at an All-NBA level this season, injuries to Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, along with offensive struggles by the rest of the roster, have kept Houston from making the leap many expected after Durant’s arrival.
A trip to the second round of the playoffs would make the first year of the Durant experience in Houston feel like a success, even if it comes against a compromised Lakers team. And once you’re there, the playoffs tend to reward whoever can withstand the chaos.
For Houston, getting Amen Thompson, Alperen Şengün and the rest of the young core more experience in the playoffs — and possibly their first series win — would be a huge win for the present and future of the franchise.
Who or what is the biggest X-factor for my team?
Woike: Deandre Ayton. He’s one of the most talented players on the Lakers. He has a soft touch, can protect around the basket and be a factor on the glass on both sides of the court.
He can also be ineffective, frustratingly disengaged and played completely off the court. With so much offensive firepower on the shelf, an energized Ayton can fill some of the offensive void. He can be an interior presence. He’s shown he can be a difference-maker.
It just hasn’t been consistent. And it just hasn’t been able to be counted on.
Which version of Tari Eason will the Lakers get? (Erik Williams / Imagn Images)
Guillory: Tari Eason. Şengün and Thompson will get most of the national recognition — and deservedly so — for the leaps they made in their individual games this season, especially with VanVleet and Adams missing time. But Eason is a player who can make this team look inept or unstoppable based on his performance.
When he is on, Houston’s size and athleticism on the perimeter can overwhelm opponents, especially against a Lakers’ team short on playmaking without Dončić and Reaves. Eason’s activity on the offensive glass and his ability to create turnovers on defense feed into Houston’s biggest strengths. When he’s doing all the little things, Thompson, Şengün and Jabari Smith can focus on the things they do best. Eason’s success also takes pressure off reserves like Reed Sheppard and Josh Okogie, who the Rockets would probably prefer to keep in the 20 to 25 minute range.
When Eason is off, though, the Rockets’ offensive spacing gets funky. His poor decision-making with the ball can disrupt their flow and often leads to more isolation-ball from Durant and Şengün.
Even though Sheppard’s maturation has been one of the brightest parts in Houston this year, I don’t think coach Ime Udoka wants to go into any of these games feeling like he needs to depend on his second-year guard to play big minutes. That will depend on Eason’s play. If he plays well, I don’t think the Lakers have much of a chance.
What is the Achilles heel/biggest concern for my team?
Woike: Guard play. The Lakers have had to survive with Luke Kennard as their primary ballhandler. Marcus Smart should help. Jake LaRavia and Bronny James may get some looks. But ultimately, the offensive responsibility runs through James, and that massive burden will undoubtedly have consequences across the court.
Guillory: Turnovers. When Houston takes care of the ball and keeps its off-ball movement sharp, they become much more difficult to stop. Teams will have to send multiple bodies to slow down Durant and Şengün.
But when the decision-making slips, it regularly turns into live-ball turnovers and easy baskets on the other end. The Lakers exposed that in their win at Houston on March 16, forcing nine fourth-quarter turnovers as the Rockets’ offense crumbled in the clutch. Lately, the Rockets’ turnover numbers have been dramatically reduced. To no one’s surprise, the wins have also started stacking up as a result. Houston has to keep doing what’s worked lately and not allow the pressure of the playoffs to speed its offense up.
Biggest reason for optimism for my team?
Woike: Maybe the basketball gods will reward the Lakers for their March and provide them with some incredible medical news with Dončić and/or Reaves. Otherwise, it’s LeBron James, this generation’s greatest player, trying to pull off a miracle.
On March 18 against the Rockets, LeBron James scored 30 points on near-perfect 13-of-14 shooting. (Thomas Shea / Imagn Images)
Guillory: The Rockets are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the playoffs. They won eight in a row before dropping Friday’s game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and six of those wins have come by double-digits. One of their most impressive performances of the season came earlier this week, when they overcame an early 21-point deficit in an emotional game against Durant’s former team, the Suns, then proceeded to steamroll them the rest of the way en route to a 14-point victory. All of the prominent figures in Houston’s rotation played well that night. The victory showed how much this group’s mental toughness has improved.
Although there have been questions about the Rockets’ cohesion all season, they’ve seemingly come together at the perfect point in the season.
Which team needs to win the series more and why?
Woike: Houston. For the Lakers, injuries have turned this into house money. A win would be legendary for LeBron. A loss would be the expected outcome after some rotten injury luck.
Guillory: Given the Lakers’ injuries, the Rockets have to win this series. They have no choice. If Dončić and Reaves aren’t able to play at any point in this series, I think it’s a disaster if Houston allows this series to go beyond six games.
Series prediction:
Woike: Rockets in 6. There are paths for the Lakers to win this series if they can figure out how to get into their offense, but the Rockets’ biggest strength — their perimeter size and athleticism — matches up favorably against a Lakers team without its starting backcourt. LeBron can get them across the finish line a couple times, but probably not four.
Guillory: Rockets in 5. I have enough respect for LeBron and JJ Redick that it wouldn’t surprise me if they found a way to sneak out a win in one of the games in LA. But with all the size and athleticism Houston brings to the table, the Lakers just don’t have the bodies or shotmaking to make this a series.
He probably won’t admit it, but there also must be a small part of Durant that would be delighted at the thought of holding a 3-1 series advantage over LeBron in their head-to-head playoff matchups. He’ll be motivated to perform well in this series, even if it isn’t to outshine LeBron. Durant knows how much his aggression inspires his younger teammates, so I expect him to come out ultra-aggressive to set the tone.
