Texas faces 4-day threat of storms, hail. Here’s what we know.

Much of Texas has enjoyed a few days of gorgeous weather this week, complete with bright sunshine and high temperatures generally sitting in the 70s statewide. However, if you’ve lived in Texas for any amount of time, you know weather like this rarely lasts long.

That will prove true again this week. After likely one more pleasant day Wednesday, a major shift in the weather is expected late this week and especially into the weekend. This is because a surge of moisture moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico will be interacting with a broad system of low atmospheric pressure in the western United States.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has included large parts of Texas in its severe weather outlooks for four consecutive days, from Saturday through Tuesday. Large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are possible. Here’s a day-by-day look at what to expect statewide.

Thursday and Friday: The severe storm threat is expected to remain low through the end of the work week, as the low pressure system will still be positioned over the Pacific Ocean. However, moisture will be plentiful, bringing increasing rain chances to parts of South Texas.

Areas in and around San Antonio will see a 30% chance of rain Thursday, with chances rising to 50% by Friday. Some thunder and gusty winds will be possible, but widespread severe weather is unlikely.

Saturday: This is when the severe storm threat begins to increase. Storms are expected to develop first in West Texas, with the Storm Prediction Center concerned about an area that includes Midland-Odessa, Abilene, San Angelo, Lubbock, and Amarillo. Large hail will likely be the biggest threat Saturday afternoon, with a few tornadoes also possible by the evening.

Sunday: The severe weather threat will shift to the east and include much of the Interstate 35 corridor, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, Waco, Austin and potentially as far south as San Antonio. The Hill Country will also face a risk of strong to severe storms. All severe weather hazards — hail, damaging winds and tornadoes — will remain possible Sunday. 

Monday: Long-range weather models suggest that moisture and atmospheric instability will remain high on Monday through parts of the Southern Plains. However, the severe weather risk will generally stay in the northern half of the state, including cities such as Abilene, Waco, Dallas-Fort Worth, Wichita Falls and Sherman, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Tuesday: Many of the same parts of North Texas will be under a severe threat again on Tuesday. However, the Storm Prediction Center also includes parts of East Texas, including Lufkin, Nacogdoches and Longview, in the severe storm risk area.

Because these severe weather threats are still several days away, uncertainty remains high, especially regarding the exact timing and placement of storms. However, with high levels of moisture and instability expected across Texas for several days, the ingredients are certainly in place for intense storm development.

The greatest rainfall totals are most likely across the northern half of the state, where the National Blend of Models projects a broad swath of an inch to 2.5 inches of rain over the next seven days. Rainfall totals will likely be lower in South Texas, where a half-inch to an inch of rain is expected.

Changes to this forecast are likely in the coming days, as forecast models refine the specific details. Stay with expressnews.com/weather for the latest updates.