The second round of WTA Madrid begins on Thursday. The opening round is the Round of 96 at this expansive tournament. Now we move into the Round of 64, with players who got first-round byes beginning their journeys in Spain. Will the winners of first-round matches have the momentum and form needed to knock off those who have been sitting idle for a few days, or will the quality of the higher-ranked players overwhelm the underdogs? We will find out soon enough. Here are our select matches for Thursday, and their best bets.
WTA Madrid
Fernandez – Grabher: Time 9:30 EST
H2H: 2-0
Leylah Fernandez had a good week in Stuttgart last week. She made a solid run to the quarterfinals before very narrowly losing to eventual champion Elena Rybakina in a match that could have gone either way. Fernandez played well enough to make the No. 2 player in the world nervous. That should give her confidence coming into Madrid. Julia Grabher is coming off a first-round Madrid victory over Spaniard Paula Badosa. Grabher was priced as a big underdog but won the match outright. Two confident players are meeting here in the second round.
Best Bet to Make
This is a tough one to call. Fernandez should win, but a straight-set win does not pay much. You have to look at the game spread. Fernandez should certainly win by at least four games, but seven or eight feels like too much against Grabher, who is playing confidently. The price indicates Grabher is getting an especially good return on your investment. Fernandez will need to be very sharp to cover a medium-level spread. Lean to Grabher.
That being said, Grabher +5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Grabher +5.5 games @2.03 @1xBet
Baptiste – Quevedo: Time 11:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
Hailey Baptiste is ranked No. 32, over 100 spots above Kaitlin Quevedo. Baptiste, however, has lost two of her last three matches since her run to the Miami (hardcourt) quarterfinals in late March. She is not especially comfortable on clay. Quevedo just defeated tennis legend Venus Williams in the first round in Madrid. The matchup was favorable, but Quevedo didn’t waste the opportunity. She will try to build on that match against Baptiste.
Best Bet to Make
The price for a Baptiste win isn’t great. Since Baptiste is not comfortable on clay, as shown by her recent loss to lower-ranked opponent Iryna Shymanovich in Rouen (Shymanovich is currently ranked No. 174), it doesn’t seem worth it to bet on Baptiste to win in straight sets. However, it also doesn’t make a lot of sense to bet on Quevedo to win a set. She beat Venus Williams in what was an easy matchup for her. Baptiste is likely to be much tougher. The best play is a game spread bet. Quevedo can keep the match moderately close, lose in straight sets, and still cash a winning ticket.
That being said, Quevedo +4.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Quevedo +4.5 games @1.70 @Unibet
Osorio – Osaka: Time 11:00 EST
H2H: 1-2
Camila Osorio is ranked No. 83. Naomi Osaka is ranked No. 15 in the world and has won several major titles. Yet, this match is priced close to a toss-up. Osaka is a very small favorite in most markets, and in some markets, Osorio is a small favorite. The odds are close to even. Why is this the case, given the rankings difference? It’s simple: Osaka has not done well in Madrid over the years. She has made the quarterfinals only once in her career. She has never reached the semifinals. She has lost in the second round or earlier several times. She is not comfortable at this tournament.
Best Bet to Make
This match is a case of betting not on players but on situations and the historical record. Osaka doesn’t do well in Madrid or on clay. Osorio is a lot more comfortable in this environment. You’re going to get a great price on Osorio to win in the markets that have Osaka priced as the favorite. That’s the play here.
That being said, Osorio winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Osorio winning @2.00 @WilliamHill
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
