Saudi Arabia appears to be expanding its ballistic missile manufacturing capabilities to produce larger, more powerful weapons, a development that could strengthen its ability to strike targets across the region and intensify concerns over a potential nuclear arms race involving Iran.According to Reuters report, which cited an analysis of satellite imagery by US researchers, construction at a missile complex west of Riyadh points to a possible expansion of solid-fuel missile production. The researchers said the new facility could accommodate larger missile motors, potentially enabling the production of weapons with greater range or heavier payloads.The suspected expansion is centred on a ballistic missile complex at Al-Dawadmi, about 200 km west of Riyadh. Researchers Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute analysed commercial satellite images captured between April 2025 and September 2026, identifying a new building that appears to contain casting pits used to manufacture solid-fuel missile motors.The structure is at least twice the size of an existing facility, raising the possibility that it could support the production of larger missiles. The researchers said the complex could begin producing missiles by the end of 2026, depending on the installation of equipment.The expansion could also have implications for Saudi Arabia’s confrontation with Yemen’s Houthi movement, which has repeatedly used missiles and drones to target Saudi territory and regional interests.A larger domestic missile production capacity could give Riyadh greater flexibility in sustaining its arsenal and conducting retaliatory strikes. However, the satellite imagery does not establish the intended operational role of the new facility or confirm that production has begun.The researchers also assessed that Saudi Arabia may be producing Chinese-designed DF-15 ballistic missiles, pointing to footage they identified as showing the wreckage of a Saudi-fired DF-15 in Yemen.According to Reuters, the suspected missile programme could involve the DF-15 or a longer-range system similar to China’s DF-21, although the precise missile type being manufactured at the expanded facility remains unconfirmed.If the assessment is correct, the development would point to a deeper Saudi reliance on Chinese missile technology as Riyadh seeks to strengthen its domestic defence industry.Saudi-Iran nuclear arms race fears growThe expansion of Saudi Arabia’s ballistic missile programme is raising questions about the risk of a nuclear arms race with Iran, as Riyadh pursues a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Washington that would allow it to enrich uranium.The concern centres on whether more capable missiles could eventually serve as delivery systems for nuclear warheads if Saudi Arabia chose to pursue them. However, there is no public evidence establishing that the kingdom is currently developing nuclear weapons.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had said in a 2018 interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes that Saudi Arabia would develop nuclear weapons if Iran acquired them.Reuters’ July 22 report on the US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement also noted that the crown prince’s statement has contributed to longstanding proliferation concerns surrounding the kingdom’s nuclear ambitions.The nuclear issue has gained fresh attention following the US-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement announced on July 22. Reuters reported that the deal would allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium and reprocess nuclear waste, but would not require it to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol, which gives inspectors broader powers to investigate potential undeclared nuclear activities.Saudi Arabia maintains that its nuclear programme is intended for peaceful purposes, while non-proliferation advocates have warned that enrichment and reprocessing technologies can provide pathways to weapons-usable material.The potential for a Saudi-Iran nuclear arms race remains conditional. Saudi Arabia’s missile expansion and civilian nuclear plans do not prove that it is pursuing nuclear weapons, but its stated intention to match Iran if Tehran acquires a bomb has heightened concerns that a future Iranian nuclear weapon could trigger a wider regional proliferation crisis.
